Economic semiannual report of 30 key cities: the new front line economy has strong resilience, in line with the \2020-08-05
Semi annual report on the economy of key cities: the new front line economy has strong resilience, in line with the \ Liu Meilin, analyst of the 21st Century Economic Research Institute At the beginning of 2020, the outbreak of new coronary fever broke out, and the national production and operation movement pressed the \ Under the influence of
epidemic situation, what is the quality of economic development in China's key cities?The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that under the background of this year's epidemic, the concept of economic resilience should be introduced into the evaluation of the development of urbanization economy. Toughness is a physical concept, which shows the ability of raw materials to absorb energy in the process of plastic deformation and crushing. The better the toughness is, the smaller the possibility of brittle fracture will occur. Delay to the periphery of the economy, economic resilience will replace a city's economic resilience. For this reason, the 21st Century Economic Research Institute selects key cities such as first tier cities, new first tier cities (2020), cities with separate plans and provincial capitals. These are the key cities or central cities in their respective regions, which are the main engines of China's regional economic growth. As of the time of publication, 30 key cities have published their economic semiannual reports for the first half of 2020. The year-on-year decline of GDP in the first quarter of the year reflects the damage level of the urban economy in the first quarter, while the percentage of the cumulative acceleration in the second quarter (hereinafter referred to as the economic rebound) represents the repair level of the urban economy in the second quarter. It can be found that the economic restoration level of new first tier cities in the second quarter is more beneficial. The economic rebound of Suzhou is clear In the first half of the 30 key cities, Xi'an's top three fastest-growing cities ranked first, Nanning and Changsha ranked second and third, and Hangzhou ranked fourth. Among the top ten economic growth speed, the top three home page platforms of super fast are landing, with half of the new first tier cities. In the last ten, nearly half of them are new first tier cities, especially the last four are all new first tier cities, which shows that the economic differentiation level of this camp in the first half of the year is relatively large. However, the popularity of new first tier cities rebounded in the second quarter, showing stronger economic resilience. If the second quarter's economic rebound is ranked again, the top ten will be Wuhan, tongpang, Suzhou, Changchun, Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Dongguan, Lanzhou and Xi'an. In addition to Changchun and Lanzhou, the remaining eight cities are new first tier cities in 2020. Wuhan's economic growth rate in the second quarter was 21% faster than that in the first quarter. The rapid economic rebound highlights its strong economic resilience. However, due to the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter, Wuhan's collective economic data deviated greatly, which is no longer discussed below. Among the first tier cities, except Shenzhen's GDP growth rate turned positive in the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rates of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou were all in the negative range, and the rebound rate in the second quarter was less than 5 percentage points, which is still in the repair cycle. In addition to Wuhan, the two cities with the most subtle economic rebound were congpang and Suzhou, which increased 10.0% and 9.1% respectively compared with the first quarter. However, judging from the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first half of 2020, the two cities have turned negative to positive, with the growth rate of 0.2% and 0.8% respectively in the first half of 2020, which are gradually separated from the impact of the epidemic on the economy. Why is it consistent with fat and Suzhou rebound clearly? Sorting out the economic transport situation of the two cities, we can find that the tertiary industry has maintained positive growth and outstanding contribution, and the investment of Zhuang Da Xiang is now growing strongly. For economically developed cities, the contribution rate of the tertiary industry to GDP is higher than that of the first and second industries. From the perspective of industry, the added value of the primary industry in the first half of the year was 11.86 billion yuan, which was the same as that of the same period last year; the second industry was 148.77 billion yuan, down 1.2%; the third industry was 281.34 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%. On the whole, in line with the rapid growth of the added value of the tertiary industry, it led the three industries, accounting for 63.7% of the GDP, and increased the GDP growth rate by 0.6%. Suzhou also shows that the tertiary industry drives GDP. In the first half of the year, the added value of Suzhou's primary industry decreased by 0.3%, the second industry increased by 0.2%, and the third industry increased by 1.3%. Among the tertiary industries, the financial sector's driving effect is particularly subtle. In the first half of the year and in Suzhou, the added value of the financial industry increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.8 percentage points higher than that of GDP. Under the
epidemic situation, the pulling behavior of investment is also highlighted. In the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of investment in fixed assets was - 2.5%, but the decline rate has narrowed by 6.2 and 18.8 percentage points compared with the previous five months and the first quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate in June was as high as 20.6%. In the first half of the year, fixed asset investment increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 7% higher than that in the first quarter.Behind the growth of
investment is the constant increase in the pace of project construction, as well as around the key points to break the situation quickly. For example, in the first half of the year, 11 projects with a total investment of more than 10 billion yuan were planned, with an increase of 64% in the amount of investment, and more than 50% of the total investment was maintained for four months. In addition, the company also added speed to the track of the new infrastructure. In the first half of the year, 201 new infrastructure projects were launched. The investment increased by 43.1% year-on-year, 29.4% faster than that in the first quarter.Changsha maintains the momentum of rapid growth Affected by the epidemic situation in the first quarter, the popularity of 30 key cities was negative. In addition to Wuhan, Shenyang, tongpang and Tianjin witnessed a significant year-on-year decline, which made them the major cities suffering from economic losses in the first quarter. By sorting the GDP of 30 cities in the first quarter of this year, we can find that Changsha's economy has the lowest year-on-year decline, which is only - 0.6%. In the first half of this year, Changsha's GDP increased by 2.2% year-on-year, ranking third among 30 cities (second only to Nan'an and Xi'an), and ranked first in the list of cities with a trillion GDP that has been released the first half of this year. In 2019, Changsha also ranks the second among 17 cities with trillion GDP with an increase rate of 8.1%. The manufacturing industry accounts for more than 40% of the total economic volume of Changsha, and the solid manufacturing industry is the cornerstone of maintaining stable economic transportation in the epidemic situation. In the first half of this year, the added value of above industries around Changsha increased by 3.9%, 1.2 percentage points higher than that in January may and 2.3 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. Among them, the added value of superior industries such as special equipment, electronic news and general equipment increased by 13.6%, 21.5% and 11.3% respectively. Industrial electricity consumption increased by 6.0% in the first half of the year, up 9.0% over the first quarter. Changsha is also one of the earliest cities to return to work and production in China. The solemn rhythm of returning to work has also maintained the rapid economic recovery situation in the epidemic situation. On March 9, Hu Henghua, member of the Standing Committee of the Hunan provincial Party committee and Secretary of the Changsha Municipal Party committee, issued a mobilization order for the \ Changsha also maintained a rapid pace of investment. In the first half of the year, fixed asset investment in Changsha increased by 4.0%, 1.6 percentage points higher than that in January may and 3.5 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. Among them, more than 50 million yuan of current projects and more than 100 million yuan of new construction projects are now improved, and the investment gap is increased by 29.2% and 58.5%. According to the 21st Century Economic Research Institute, although the growth rate and differentiation of the new first tier cities in the first half of the year are major, the popularization of their economic resilience is more beneficial. From the perspective of the economic rebound, the repair speed in the second quarter is slightly faster than that in the first tier cities. The economic recovery ability of the new first tier city camp is particularly clear in line with the current situation of fat, Suzhou, Changsha and other cities. Whether it is to speed up the pace of returning to work, helping the upper class industries to wake up, or strengthening investment and promoting consumption recovery, the new first tier cities are constantly pursuing new economic growth points, showing the strongest economic resilience outside the epidemic.